What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Karbalaa and 1.4 from Al Karkh, so Al Karkh come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Karbalaa come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Al Karkh to win. Al Karkh shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.4), and we make them about 48% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.20, which works out at about 45 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Karbalaa only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We only make this about 48%, so it's far from a lock.
