How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Al Karkh to win 46%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Karbalaa host Al Karkh at home in the Iraq Stars League on 4 September. Both clubs are stuck in the relegation zone. Karbalaa sit 19th out of 20 with two points from their last four games and a goal difference of minus five. One place above them, Newroz are just a point clear, while Al Karkh sit bottom, 20th, with a single point from four matches and a goal difference of minus four. The two sides are only one point apart, so the three points on offer could be decisive in the fight to stay up.
We think Al Karkh have the edge. The goal expectations are 0.9 for Karbalaa and 1.4 for Al Karkh, giving a total of about 2.3 goals in the game. That makes Al Karkh the stronger side on the numbers. Our pick is Al Karkh to win. The price of 2.20 matches our view of the match. We see about a 46 % chance of Al Karkh coming out on top, which is close to a coin toss but still the better option. For the pick to go wrong, Karbalaa would need to find a sudden spark and score at least two goals while keeping Al Karkh to none – a scenario that looks unlikely given the recent form and the numbers.
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