What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Al Shorta and 0.9 from Erbil, so Al Shorta come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Al Shorta come into this on two straight wins. Erbil come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Al Shorta to win. Al Shorta are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.9), and we make them about 51% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Erbil to spoil this. We only make this about 51%, so it's far from a lock.
