What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Newroz and 0.8 from Karbalaa, so Newroz come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Newroz come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Newroz to win. Newroz are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.8), and we make them about 70% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Newroz have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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