Beitar Jerusalem v Maccabi Petah Tikva FC prediction

What to expect

Beitar Jerusalem host Maccabi Petah Tikva FC at home in the Ligat ha’Al on 15 September. Beitar sit 12th out of 14, three points from three games and with a –5 goal difference. They are in the relegation zone, just one place above Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona and two points clear of Bnei Sakhnin below them. A win would lift them out of the drop-zone and give them breathing space, while a loss could see them slip further into danger. Maccabi Petah Tikva sit a few spots higher, but both clubs are fighting to stay clear of the bottom three.

Beitar’s last four matches have been a mixed bag. They began with a 1-0 win away at Bnei Sakhnin, then went down 3-0 to Hapoel Tel Aviv on the road. Back at home they were beaten 4-1 by PAOK and later drew 0-0 with the same side away. In those four games they have scored just two goals while conceding seven. They kept two clean sheets but also failed to find the net in two matches. Two of the games featured three or more goals, and only one saw both sides score.

The numbers suggest an open contest with chances at both ends. Our goal expectations put Beitar at 2.2 and Maccabi Petah Tikva at 0.9, a total of just over three goals. Beitar have an 86 % chance of scoring at least once and a 55 % chance of getting two or more goals. Maccabi Petah Tikva’s chances are lower – 54 % to score and only 17 % to hit the net twice. That balance points to a game where the home side should create more opportunities, but the visitors are still likely to get a chance.

We back Beitar Jerusalem to win. The price of 1.65 matches our own view of the match. We see a roughly 62 % chance of a Beitar victory, which aligns with the stronger scoring outlook for the home team. For the pick to go wrong, Beitar would need to be shut out completely while Maccabi Petah Tikva manage to score at least once, something that looks unlikely given the recent form and the goal expectations. The price looks good for a side that should be able to edge it at home.