What to expect
We expect about 2.2 goals from Beitar Jerusalem and 0.9 from Maccabi Petah Tikva FC, so Beitar Jerusalem come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Beitar Jerusalem to win. Beitar Jerusalem are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.9), and we make them about 64% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.67, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Beitar Jerusalem have won one of their last four.
