How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Hapoel Haifa to win 47%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Hapoel Haifa and 0.8 from Bnei Sakhnin, so Hapoel Haifa come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Hapoel Haifa come into this on two straight draws. Bnei Sakhnin come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Hapoel Haifa to win. Hapoel Haifa are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.8), and we make them about 48% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.87, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Hapoel Haifa have won four of the last five meetings.
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