What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Hapoel Petah Tikva and 1.0 from Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC, so Hapoel Petah Tikva come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Hapoel Petah Tikva to win. Hapoel Petah Tikva are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.0), and we make them about 46% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 6.25, which works out at about 16 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
