What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from Maccabi Haifa and 1.0 from Hapoel Petah Tikva, so Maccabi Haifa come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Maccabi Haifa to win. Maccabi Haifa are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.0), and we make them about 60% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.51, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Hapoel Petah Tikva to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 60%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
