What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Maccabi Petah Tikva FC and 1.3 from Ironi Tiberias, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Ironi Tiberias to win. Ironi Tiberias shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.3), and we make them about 38% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.10, which works out at about 32 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Maccabi Petah Tikva FC to spoil this. We only make this about 38%, so it's far from a lock.
