What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Maccabi Petach Tikva and 2.3 from Hapoel Beer Sheva, so Hapoel Beer Sheva come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Hapoel Beer Sheva to win. Hapoel Beer Sheva shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-2.3), and we make them about 72% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Hapoel Beer Sheva have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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