Avispa Fukuoka v Sanfrecce Hiroshima: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score 2 or fewer 76%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Avispa Fukuoka host Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home in a J1 League clash on 19 September 2026. Avispa sit 18th out of 20 with four points from seven games and a goal difference of minus two. They are in the relegation zone, just one point ahead of Tokyo Verdy and one point behind Kyoto Sanga FC. Hiroshima sit fourth with fourteen points and a plus-thirteen goal difference, level on points with FC Tokyo and a point behind Kashiwa Reysol. The two teams are separated by fourteen points, so the match is more about Hiroshima extending their push for the top spots while Avispa fight to climb out of the drop zone.

Avispa’s recent form has been poor. In their last eight games they have won once, drawn once and lost six times. The most recent results are a 1-0 loss away to Shimizu S-Pulse, a 1-1 draw at home with Mito, a 3-2 defeat at home to Urawa Reds and a 2-1 loss away to Kyoto. Before that they fell 3-2 away to Kashima Antlers and then beat Cerezo Osaka 3-0 at home. They have not won in five games. In those eight matches they have scored nine goals and let in twelve. They kept only one clean sheet and failed to find the net in three games. Four of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them.

Hiroshima come in much stronger. In their last eight outings they have won five, drawn two and lost once. Their latest fixtures include a 6-1 home win over Cerezo Osaka, a 3-2 away loss to Okayama, a 3-0 home victory over Nagoya Grampus, a 0-0 draw away at Gamba Osaka, a 1-1 home draw with Kawasaki Frontale and a 4-1 away win over Urawa Reds. On the road in their last three games they have one win, one draw and one loss. Across those eight games Hiroshima have scored 21 goals and conceded only seven. They kept three clean sheets and were held scoreless once. Six of the matches produced three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them.

The two clubs have met five times before. Hiroshima have won four of those meetings and one ended in a draw. The games have averaged two goals each. The most recent encounter was on 27 September 2025 when Hiroshima beat Avispa 2-1 at Avispa’s ground. That result suggests a modest scoring pattern and a clear edge for the visitors. Given Hiroshima’s higher scoring rate and Avispa’s defensive frailties, we expect a low-scoring affair for the visitors but with both sides likely to find the net.

We pick Hiroshima to score two or fewer goals. Our expectation for Hiroshima’s tally is about 1.5, so staying under three fits their usual output. The price of 1.32 matches our view of the game. We feel confident about this choice, estimating a 76 % chance it will happen. For the pick to go wrong Hiroshima would need to find the net three times or more, which would require a rare burst of firepower that their recent numbers do not support.