Shimizu S-Pulse v Chiba: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Chiba to score 1 or fewer 73%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Shimizu S-Pulse host Chiba at their home ground in a J1 League clash on 19 September. Shimizu sit 13th out of 20 with seven points from seven games and a -3 goal difference. One place above them, Urawa Red Diamonds are two points clear, while V-Varen Nagasaki sit just below, level on points. Chiba are at the very bottom, 20th with four points and a -10 goal difference, sharing the relegation zone with Tokyo Verdy a spot above. Both teams have only seven points, but Shimizu are a place higher and have a slightly better goal record, so the match could decide who stays clear of the drop-zone for now.

Shimizu’s recent form has been poor. In their last eight games they have won only twice, drawn once and lost five times. The most recent result was a 1-0 win over Avispa Fukuoka at home. Before that they fell 3-1 away to Kawasaki Frontale, then drew 1-1 with FC Tokyo at home, and suffered narrow defeats of 1-0 to Kashiwa Reysol at home, 1-0 to Cerezo Osaka away and 1-0 to Yokohama F. Marinos at home. In those eight matches they have scored five goals and let in nine, keeping two clean sheets while failing to find the net in three games. Only two of the games produced three or more goals, and both sides scored in three of the matches.

Chiba have also struggled but have shown a flicker of resilience. Their last eight outings contain two wins, one draw and five defeats. Most recently they earned a 1-1 draw away at Tokyo Verdy, after a 2-0 away win over Kamatamare Sanuki and a 2-0 home victory over Gamba Osaka. Prior to that they lost 2-1 at home to Okayama, were beaten 4-2 away by Kawasaki Frontale and fell 2-0 away to FC Tokyo. They have gone unbeaten in their last three games, though the road record in the last five is one win, one draw and three losses. Across the eight games they have scored eight and conceded sixteen, kept two clean sheets and have been shut out three times. Four of those matches featured three or more goals, with both sides scoring in three of them.

The two clubs have met before, but the data we have does not give specific head-to-head scores, so we can only look at their current patterns. Both sides tend to produce low-scoring games, with Shimizu keeping two clean sheets and Chiba also managing two in the same stretch. Each team has struggled to score in several matches, and most of their recent fixtures have been decided by a single goal. Given the defensive frailties and the limited firepower shown, we expect another tight affair with few chances.

Our pick is that Chiba will score one goal or fewer. The chance of this happening sits at 73 % in our view, and the price of 1.31 is shorter than we think the game deserves. If Chiba manage to find the net twice, the bet would fail, which could happen if they finally break their recent scoring drought against a side that has only scored five times in eight games. Otherwise, the odds of a clean sheet or a single goal for Chiba look strong, and we feel the price is generous for that likelihood.