What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Shimizu S-Pulse and 0.9 from Chiba, so Shimizu S-Pulse come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Chiba to score 1 or fewer. This is about Chiba's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 73%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Shimizu S-Pulse have won one of their last five.
✓Chiba have won two of their last five.
