How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Kashima Antlers to win 54%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Kashima Antlers and 0.8 from Avispa Fukuoka, so Kashima Antlers come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Kashima Antlers come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Kashima Antlers to win. Kashima Antlers are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.8), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.75, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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