How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Nagoya Grampus and 1.5 from Gamba Osaka, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Nagoya Grampus come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.8 goals in total (xG 1.4-1.4), keeping it under more often than not (about 73%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Gamba Osaka have won four of the last five meetings.
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