How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Kashima Antlers to win 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Kashima Antlers host Cerezo Osaka at home in a J1 League clash on 31 October 2026. Kashima sit eighth in the table with 20 points from 12 games and a +4 goal difference. One place above them sits Urawa Red Diamonds, just a point ahead, while Yokohama F.Marinos trail by two points in ninth. Cerezo Osaka are 12th with 14 points and a –7 goal difference, level on points with Shimizu S-Pulse below them and just behind Nagoya Grampus. Both teams played three days ago, so the fixture comes on a short turnaround for each side. The match could move Kashima closer to the top half and give Cerezo a chance to climb out of the lower mid-table.
Kashima’s recent form has been strong. In their last eight games they have won five, drawn two and lost one. The most recent result was a 3-0 victory over Pohang Steelers at home, followed by a 3-2 loss to Kashiwa Reysol, also at home. Before that they drew 2-2 away at Kyoto, beat V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 at home, won 1-0 away at Công An Hà Nội and secured a 2-0 home win over Gamba Osaka. In those eight matches Kashima have scored 18 goals and let in nine, keeping four clean sheets. Four of the games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in four of those high-scoring encounters.
Cerezo Osaka have been solid on the road. Their last eight outings contain four wins, three draws and a single defeat. The most recent game was a 3-1 away win at Mito Hollyhock. Prior to that they drew 2-2 at home with Chiba, then drew 1-1 away at Nagoya Grampus, suffered a 4-2 home loss to Kawasaki Frontale, beat Gainare Tottori 3-2 away and held Yokohama F.Marinos to a 0-0 draw at home. In this run they have scored 15 goals and conceded 11, with two clean sheets and one game where they failed to find the net. Their last three matches have all ended without defeat, and on the road they are unbeaten in four straight games with three wins and a draw.
When the two sides have met before, Kashima have generally had the edge. In the last five meetings Kashima won three, Cerezo one and one match finished level. The games have been low-scoring, averaging two goals each, and the most recent meeting saw Kashima beat Cerezo 3-1 in September 2025. Given Kashima’s higher expected goal tally of 2.2 compared with Cerezo’s 1.1, the fixture is likely to stay open with chances for both teams, but Kashima should have the sharper attack.
We back Kashima Antlers to win. The price of 1.73 matches our view of the game and looks reasonable. Kashima’s numbers suggest they will score at least once 84 % of the time and twice or more 55 % of the time, while Cerezo’s chances of scoring are lower at 61 % and only 25 % for two goals. Our chance of a correct pick sits at 58 %. For the result to go wrong, Cerezo would need to keep a clean sheet and score twice, or Kashima would have to be shut out despite their recent attacking form. All things considered, taking the home side to come out on top is the cleaner play.
Recent results
Kashima Antlers have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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