How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Machida and 0.9 from Urawa Reds, so Machida come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Machida come into this on two straight wins. Urawa Reds come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.6 goals between the two (xG 1.7-1.0), landing about 73% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last four meetings are split 1-1, with two drawn.
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