What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.1 from Kawasaki Frontale, so Sanfrecce Hiroshima come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima come into this on three straight wins. Kawasaki Frontale come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 3.1 goals in total (xG 1.9-1.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 71%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. At around 71% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
