How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Both teams to score 55%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
V-Varen Nagasaki host Nagoya Grampus at home in a J1 League clash on 12 September 2026. V-Varen sit 18th of 20 with four points from six games and a -7 goal difference, right in the relegation zone. One spot above them is Shimizu S-Pulse on the same points, while Tokyo Verdy sit just below. Nagoya are 14th with six points from six games and a -4 goal difference, sandwiched between Gamba Osaka above and Kyoto Sanga FC below. Both clubs are fighting to climb out of the lower half, and a win could give either side a small but vital lift in the table.
V-Varen’s recent form has been uneven. In their last eight matches they have won two, drawn two and lost four. The most recent result was a 1-0 away win over Kochi United SC. Before that they fell 3-1 away to Vissel Kobe, then drew 2-2 at home with Gamba Osaka, suffered a 3-0 home loss to FC Tokyo, a 4-2 away defeat to Kashiwa Reysol and a 1-0 away loss to Okayama. At home in the last four games they have one win, two draws and one defeat. In those eight games they have scored 12 and let in 18, keeping only one clean sheet and failing to score in two matches. Six of the games featured three or more goals and both sides have found the net in five of them.
Nagoya Grampus have also been inconsistent. Their last eight outings produced three wins and five losses, with no draws. The latest was a 3-1 home loss to Machida, preceded by a 3-0 away defeat to Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Prior to that they beat Okayama 2-1 at home, then beat Gamba Osaka 3-1, lost 2-1 away to Kashima Antlers and fell 1-0 at home to Shimizu S-Pulse. Their three most recent road games have all been defeats. Over the eight-game run they have scored nine and conceded 14, kept one clean sheet and have been shut out twice. As with V-Varen, six of those matches produced three or more goals and both sides scored in five.
The two clubs have met twice before, with V-Varen winning both encounters. Those games have been high-scoring, averaging five goals each. The most recent meeting was a 4-3 victory for V-Varen at Nagoya on 15 September 2018. Given the history of open games and the similar expected goal totals of 1.6 for V-Varen and 1.7 for Nagoya, we anticipate another match with chances at both ends rather than a defensive stalemate.
Our pick is both teams to score. Both sides have a roughly 75 % chance of finding the net and a 40 % chance of scoring twice, so a goal from each is likely. The price of 1.55 is shorter than our reading, which makes it attractive. We expect a 55 % chance of this happening. It would only fail if one team shuts out the other completely, which seems unlikely given the recent patterns of open, high-scoring games.
Recent results
V-Varen Nagasaki have won two of the last two meetings.
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