How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Kairat Almaty to win 60%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Kaspiy Aktau and 1.8 from Kairat Almaty, so Kairat Almaty come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Kairat Almaty come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Kairat Almaty to win. Kairat Almaty shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.8), and we make them about 61% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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