What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Kaspiy Aktau and 1.8 from Kairat Almaty, so Kairat Almaty come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Kairat Almaty to win. Kairat Almaty shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.8), and we make them about 61% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Kaspiy Aktau a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 61%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
