How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Ordabasy Shymkent to win 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Ordabasy Shymkent and 0.7 from Zhenis, so Ordabasy Shymkent come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Ordabasy Shymkent come into this on four straight wins. Zhenis come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Ordabasy Shymkent to win. Ordabasy Shymkent are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.7), and we make them about 71% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.19, which works out at about 84 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Ordabasy Shymkent have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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