How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made FC Yelimay or Draw 67%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
FC Altai Oskemen host FC Yelimay at home in the Kazakhstan Premier League on 25 October 2026. Altai sit 15th out of 16 with 24 points and a –14 goal difference, deep in the relegation zone. Yelimay are 6th with 44 points and a +2 goal difference, chasing the places above them. A win for Altai would lift them two points clear of Zhetysu Taldykorgan and give them a breath of fresh air, while a loss would leave them just one point above Kaisar Kyzylorda and still in danger. Yelimay need a result to keep the gap to Tobol Kostanay at three points and to stay ahead of Aktobe, who sit one point above them.
Altai have not won in their last three matches. They drew 1-1 with Atyrau at home, then lost 2-1 away to Kaspiy Aktau and 2-1 at home to Irtysh Pavlodar. In those three games they have scored three goals and let in five. Two of the games produced three or more goals and both sides found the net in each of those matches. The side’s last appearance was seven days ago.
Yelimay come into the game on the back of four wins in their last five outings. Their most recent victory was a 2-1 home win over Ulytau, followed by a 2-1 away win at Atyrau. Before that they fell 3-1 at home to Aktobe, then beat Tobol Kostanay 2-0 away and beat Zhetysu Taldykorgan 2-1 at home. Over those five games they have scored nine and conceded six, keeping one clean sheet. Four of the matches featured three or more goals and both teams scored in each of those games. Yelimay also played their last match seven days ago.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to produce several goals with both sides scoring. Given Altai’s recent pattern of conceding and Yelimay’s habit of finding the net, we expect another open encounter. The goal expectations of 1.2 for Altai and 1.6 for Yelimay add up to about 2.8 goals, which fits the recent trend of three-goal affairs between them.
Our pick is Yelimay or a draw at odds of 1.68. The price is longer than our own reading of the game, but it gives us a safety net if Altai manage to hold on for a point. Yelimay are the stronger side on the numbers and have the momentum of two straight wins. For our pick to fail, Altai would need to win outright, which looks unlikely given their three-game winless run and the gap in the table. The price looks good for the chance we see, and we feel comfortable backing the lean with this broader option.
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