How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Al-Arabi to win 70%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Al-Arabi and 0.6 from Al-Salibikhaet, so Al-Arabi come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Al-Arabi to win. Al-Arabi are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.6), and we make them about 72% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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