How it turned out
We projected about 4.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Kuwait SC to win 89%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 3.5 goals from Kuwait SC and 0.6 from Al-Jahra, so Kuwait SC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Kuwait SC to win. Kuwait SC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.5-0.5), and we make them about 90% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 89 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.11, which works out at about 90 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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