How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Kazma to win 47%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Kazma head into the match as the clear favourite. The numbers we have show them scoring about 1.4 goals on average, while Al Sahel SC manage roughly 0.9. That gap suggests Kazma will have the edge and are likely to control the game. Expect a fairly open contest, with both sides looking to get on the scoresheet, but Kazma should have more chances.
We think Kazma to win is the sensible choice. The price on offer is 1.43, which is shorter than what our reading of the game would suggest. In our view Kazma have about a 48 % chance of coming out on top. The price is attractive because it pays out well for a win that we feel is the most likely outcome, and it is better than chasing a bigger payout on a riskier result.
For our view to be wrong, Al Sahel SC would need to surprise us by scoring early and then defending strongly, limiting Kazma’s chances. A defensive lapse from Kazma or a red card could also swing things. Even if that happens, we still think Kazma are the stronger side, so our confidence remains solid. We are comfortable with this pick and believe the price offers good reward for the risk.
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