How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Al-Arabi to win 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.6 goals from Al-Jahra and 2.3 from Al-Arabi, so Al-Arabi come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Al-Arabi to win. Al-Arabi shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-2.3), and we make them about 73% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.22, which works out at about 82 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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