How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Both teams to score 62%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Alaves and 1.8 from Villarreal, so Villarreal come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Villarreal come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.4-1.8), and we make both teams to score about 62%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.67, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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