What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Alaves and 1.7 from Villarreal, so Villarreal come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Villarreal come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.4-1.7), and we make both teams to score about 61%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.67, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
If one attack goes missing for the night, both teams scoring falls flat. We make it about 61% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
