What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Getafe and 0.6 from Malaga, so Getafe come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.6 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Getafe come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 1.6 goals between the two (xG 1.0-0.6). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.62, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Getafe have won one of their last five.
✓Malaga have won one of their last five.
