How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 53%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from La Coruna and 1.1 from Valencia, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
La Coruna come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.3 goals in total (xG 1.3-1.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 56%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.58, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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