What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Celta and 1.1 from Ath Bilbao, so Celta come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.7-1.1), and we make both teams to score about 56%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Celta have won three of their last five.
✓Ath Bilbao have won one of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in four of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
17 May 2026Ath Bilbao 1 - 1 Celta
14 Dec 2025Celta 2 - 0 Ath Bilbao
19 Jan 2025Celta 1 - 2 Ath Bilbao
22 Sept 2024Ath Bilbao 3 - 1 Celta
15 May 2024Celta 2 - 1 Ath Bilbao
One thing to watch
One well-drilled defence, or a game that turns one-sided, and this is gone. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 56%.
