What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from RC Deportivo de A Coruna and 3.3 from Barcelona, so Barcelona come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Barcelona come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Barcelona to win. Barcelona shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-3.3), and we make them about 88% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 87 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
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