What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Vallecano and 1.0 from Valencia, so Vallecano come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Vallecano or Draw. This covers Vallecano or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Vallecano have won one of the last five meetings, with four drawn.
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