What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Valencia and 1.6 from Villarreal, so Villarreal come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.3-1.6), and we make both teams to score about 57%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.64, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Valencia have won one of their last five.
✓Villarreal have won three of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
22 Feb 2026Villarreal 2 - 1 Valencia
25 Oct 2025Valencia 0 - 2 Villarreal
15 Feb 2025Villarreal 1 - 1 Valencia
31 Aug 2024Valencia 1 - 1 Villarreal
17 Mar 2024Villarreal 1 - 0 Valencia
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