What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Vallecano and 1.2 from Elche, so Vallecano come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.7-1.2), and we make both teams to score about 59%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.77, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Vallecano have won two of their last five.
✓Elche have won one of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
3 Apr 2026Vallecano 1 - 0 Elche
21 Dec 2025Elche 4 - 0 Vallecano
29 Apr 2023Elche 4 - 0 Vallecano
3 Oct 2022Vallecano 2 - 1 Elche
18 Feb 2022Elche 2 - 1 Vallecano
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