What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Vallecano and 1.0 from Santander, so Vallecano come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.4 goals in total (xG 1.4-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 53%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.80, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. We make it about 53% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
