How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Valencia under 6.5 corners 86%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Valencia and 2.3 from Barcelona, so Barcelona come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Valencia come into this on two straight defeats. Barcelona come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Valencia under 6.5 corners. Our model makes this about 86% for the home side. The match odds favour the away side, which tends to shift the corner count their way. Corners are a new market for us — the record is public from day one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 86 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.22, which works out at about 82 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Barcelona have won four of the last five meetings.
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