Riga FC v Auda: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Riga FC to win 68%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Riga FC host Auda at home in the Latvia Virsliga on 11 September 2026. Riga sit second in the ten-team table with 66 points from 28 games and a +54 goal difference. Auda are third with 56 points and a +18 goal difference. Both clubs are in the European places, but Riga are ten points clear of Auda and four ahead of the team above them, RFS. The two sides are only one place apart, so a win for Riga would keep their grip on second place, while Auda would need the result to close the gap.

Riga’s recent form has been poor. In their last three matches they have not won – a 1-1 draw with BFC Daugavpils at home, followed by two 3-2 defeats to FK Liepāja away. They have scored five goals and let in seven in those three games. Both defeats featured three or more goals and both teams found the net. The side also had to play just four days after the loss to Liepāja, so fatigue could be a factor.

Auda arrive on a much stronger run. In their last eight games they have won six, drawn one and lost one. The most recent results are a 1-0 win over Grobiņa at home, a 1-1 draw with SK Super Nova at home and a 1-0 victory over Drita at home. Before that they beat Cliftonville FC 2-0 at home, won 2-1 away at Cliftonville, and took a 1-0 away win at B36 Torshavn. They have kept five clean sheets in the run, scoring 11 and conceding six. Their last three away games produced two wins and one loss, and they played five days ago, giving them a slightly longer break than Riga.

The two clubs have met before, but the record is not supplied, so we can only look at the shape each side brings. Riga have struggled to find a win and have let in more than they score recently, while Auda have been solid defensively and have been scoring in most of their games. The match could be tight, with both sides capable of scoring, but Riga’s home advantage and the need to bounce back may push them to be more aggressive.

We pick Riga FC to win. The numbers give Riga an expected 2.1 goals to Auda’s 0.8, and we think they have about a 68 % chance of coming out on top. The price of 1.34 is shorter than our view, so it looks attractive. For the pick to fail, Riga would need to fall into another winless spell and Auda would have to keep their defensive solidity while finding a goal. If Riga cannot break the deadlock early, the game could slip away, but we feel the balance is still in their favour.