RFS v FK Liepāja: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.6 goals; the game finished with 0. We made RFS to win 77%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

RFS host FK Liepāja at home in the Latvia Virsliga on 7 September 2026. RFS sit top of the ten-team table with 69 points from 27 matches and a +48 goal difference. They are sitting in the European-qualification places, just one point ahead of Riga FC and four ahead of the second-placed side. FK Liepāja are fourth with 40 points from 28 games and a –2 goal difference, three points clear of BFC Daugavpils but 16 points behind the team above them, Auda. Both clubs will be looking to improve their positions, but RFS have more to lose if they slip.

RFS have been in fine form lately. They beat their last three opponents, winning 3-0 against Celtic, then 4-1 over Kilmarnock and most recently 2-0 against a side not listed here. Those results give them a run of six goals scored and only one conceded in the last three games, showing they can both attack and keep a clean sheet.

FK Liepāja’s recent run has been mixed. They suffered a 3-0 loss to Celtic and a 4-1 defeat at the hands of Kilmarnock. Their most recent match ended in a 2-2 draw, a game in which they managed to find the net twice but also let in two. The draw shows they can score, but they also continue to leak goals.

When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to produce goals at both ends. The numbers we have for this meeting suggest a similar pattern, with RFS expected to score around 2.7 goals and FK Liepāja about 0.8. That points to an open contest where the home side should have the edge.

We pick RFS to win. The price of 1.33 matches our view of the game. RFS are the stronger side on the numbers and we think they have about a 76 % chance of coming out on top. The pick would be wrong if FK Liepāja manage to tighten up at the back and score early, forcing RFS into a chase. Otherwise, the home team should take the three points.