How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Dundalk to score 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Dundalk and 1.4 from St. Patricks, so St. Patricks come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Dundalk to score. This is about Dundalk's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.2 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 71%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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