What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Waterford and 1.5 from Derry City, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.5-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 56%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Waterford are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓Derry City have won two of their last five.
✓Five of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in five of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
3 Jul 2026Derry City 2 - 4 Waterford
15 May 2026Waterford 2 - 2 Derry City
27 Feb 2026Derry City 4 - 2 Waterford
17 Oct 2025Waterford 1 - 2 Derry City
4 Jul 2025Derry City 7 - 2 Waterford
