Shamrock Rovers v Shelbourne: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Shamrock Rovers (Draw No Bet) 70%, but the stake came back in full.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.6 goals from Shamrock Rovers and 0.9 from Shelbourne, so Shamrock Rovers come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Shamrock Rovers come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Shamrock Rovers (Draw No Bet). Shamrock Rovers are favoured here (xG 1.6-0.9), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Shamrock Rovers defeat beats you.

We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.