How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Over 1.5 goals 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Shelbourne and 1.2 from Derry City, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Shelbourne come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.7 goals between the two (xG 1.4-1.3), landing about 73% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Derry City have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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