How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Mansfield to score 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Burton and 1.2 from Mansfield, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Mansfield to score. This is about Mansfield's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.3 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 70%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Burton have won one of the last four meetings, with three drawn.
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