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★★★★★Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.5-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 56%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
League One
FootballThe fixtures we cover this week with what we expect from each game, and the table as it stands.
18Matches
6Top picks
First kickoff
This week
Saturday 3 October
v★★★★★
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★★★★★This should be an open game: we make it around 3.6 goals between the two (xG 1.4-2.3), landing about 64% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
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★★★★★Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.3-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 55%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
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★★★★★Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.5-1.6), and we make both teams to score about 59%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
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★★★★★This covers Reading or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
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★★★★★This covers Mansfield or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
Saturday 10 October
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★★★★★This covers Oxford or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
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★★★★★Plymouth are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.9), and we make them about 68% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
v★★★★★This covers Bradford or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
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★★★★★Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.5-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 57%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
v★★★★★This covers Doncaster or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
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★★★★★This is about Sheffield Weds's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.4 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 77%.
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★★★★★We make this around 2.9 goals (xG 1.7-1.2), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 75%).
v★★★★★This is about Bromley's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 76%.
v★★★★★Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.3-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 57%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
v★★★★★This is about Wigan's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.7 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 79%.
v★★★★★Stockport are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.1), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
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★★★★★Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.8-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 58%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
