Leyton Orient v Wycombe: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 56%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Leyton Orient host Wycombe at their ground on 12 September. Orient sit 15th in the 24-team League One table with seven points from six games and a +3 goal difference. Wycombe are three places below them in 19th, also on six points but with a –4 goal difference. Both clubs are hovering near the relegation zone, so a win could lift one side a few places while a loss would keep the other stuck in the danger zone. The numbers suggest Orient are the stronger side, but the gap is slim and both will be desperate for points.

Orient’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight matches they have won two, drawn two and lost four. The most recent result was a 3-1 defeat at home to Bradford City. Before that they drew 1-1 away at Luton, then enjoyed a 5-0 away win over Bromley. A 3-1 home loss to Barnsley followed, then a 2-0 away victory at Wigan and a 2-1 home loss to Sheffield Wednesday. In those eight games they have scored 13 and let in 12, kept two clean sheets and failed to score once. Four of the last four home games have been defeats or a draw, showing they have struggled to win at their own end.

Wycombe have not been much better. Their last eight outings produced one win, three draws and four defeats. The latest was a 3-3 home draw with Milton Keynes Dons. Prior to that they lost 2-1 at home to Sheffield Wednesday, then suffered a heavy 5-1 away loss to Stockport. They drew 1-1 at home to Plymouth, repeated a 1-1 draw away to Blackpool and before that beat Rotherham 3-2 at home. In total they have scored 13 and conceded 19 in the run, have been shut out once and have gone five games without a win. Their last three trips away ended with two defeats and a draw.

When the two clubs meet the games tend to be open. In the five most recent meetings each side has won twice and one match ended level. Those encounters have produced an average of 2.2 goals. The latest clash was a 2-0 win for Orient on 21 March, but the overall record shows both teams are capable of finding the net. Given the recent frequency of three-goal games and the fact that both sides have scored in most of their recent matches, we expect another contest with chances at both ends.

We back both teams to score. The goal expectations are 1.6 for Orient and 1.3 for Wycombe, giving an overall total of about 2.9 goals. The price of 1.61 is shorter than our reading, which makes it attractive. We think the chance of both sides scoring sits around 56 %. For the pick to fail, one side would need to keep a clean sheet – either Orient shutting out Wycombe or Wycombe holding a goalless draw. If the game turns into a defensive slog, the bet would lose, but the evidence points to another lively encounter with goals on both ends.