What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Oxford and 1.4 from Reading, so Oxford come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.8-1.4), and we make both teams to score about 57%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
One thing to watch
One well-drilled defence, or a game that turns one-sided, and this is gone. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 57%.
