What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Plymouth and 1.1 from Burton, so Plymouth come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Plymouth come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Plymouth to score 2 or fewer. This is about Plymouth's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 68%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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