How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Burton to score 1 or fewer 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Plymouth and 1.1 from Burton, so Plymouth come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Plymouth come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Burton to score 1 or fewer. This is about Burton's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.27, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Plymouth have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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