What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Reading and 1.3 from Barnsley, so Reading come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Barnsley come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.0 goals between the two (xG 1.7-1.3), landing about 58% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Barnsley have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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