What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Stevenage and 0.9 from Mansfield, so Stevenage come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.1 goals in total (xG 1.2-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 82%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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