Stevenage v Milton Keynes Dons prediction

What to expect

We expect about 1.6 goals from Stevenage and 0.8 from Milton Keynes Dons, so Stevenage come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Milton Keynes Dons to score 1 or fewer. This is about Milton Keynes Dons's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 82%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 83 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.