How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks tight. Atlante are a little stronger on paper, with an expected 1.6 goals compared with Leon’s 1.0. The total we expect is about 2.6 goals, so there isn’t a lot of firepower on either side. It should be a cagey affair rather than an open goal-fest.
Recent results give a clear picture. Atlante have only won one of their last five league games and are coming in on two defeats. Leon, on the other hand, have won three of their last five and arrive on three straight wins. In the last four meetings Leon have the edge with three wins and one draw, and those games have averaged just 2.2 goals.
We back the Under 3.5 goals. The expected 2.6 goals and the low-scoring history suggest the total will stay under the line. The price of 1.39 matches our view of the game, and we feel confident about the pick.
For the pick to go wrong we would need a sudden burst of goals – perhaps a defensive lapse or a set-piece that changes the flow. That would be unlikely given the recent tight scores and the way both teams have been playing. We hold this view strongly.
Recent meetings
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