How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Both teams to score 55%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The numbers show Tigres UANL as the stronger side. They are expected to score about 1.9 goals while Santos Laguna average just over one. With both teams able to find the net, the match should stay open and give chances at both ends.
Recent form does not help Santos Laguna. They have lost five league games in a row, none of which were wins or draws. Tigres have managed only one win and one draw in their last five, but they have still been better than Santos. In the head-to-head record, Tigres have won every meeting, five to zero, and the games have been high-scoring, averaging more than three goals. The last encounter ended 5-1 to Tigres, so the pattern points to plenty of goals.
We pick both teams to score. Both sides are averaging enough shots on target to get a goal, and the 55 % chance we give it fits the evidence. The price of 1.65 is shorter than we think the game is worth, so we feel the odds are generous for this outcome.
It would only go wrong if Santos fail to score at all, which could happen if they fall into another shut-out like their recent defeats. A clean sheet for Tigres would also break our view. We are fairly confident, but we know a single goalless spell would flip the result.
Recent meetings
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