What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Santos Laguna and 1.9 from Tigres UANL, so Tigres UANL come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Santos Laguna come into this on four straight defeats. Tigres UANL come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.1-1.9), and we make both teams to score about 55%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.68, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
One well-drilled defence, or a game that turns one-sided, and this is gone. The price is shorter than our own read of about 55%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
